…And on the subject of devolution vs. independence, what a political own-goal by the UK government:

The Faslane naval base on the Clyde is to become home to the UK’s entire nuclear-powered submarine fleet, the BBC understands.

An announcement on the future of the UK’s naval submarines is expected to be made in the House of Commons later.
It is understood that Trafalgar class submarines, currently based in Plymouth, will join the existing Vanguard fleet based at Faslane.
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It’s a total gift to the SNP, who campaign against nuclear weapons being held in Scotland (and use planning powers to block the construction of new nuclear power stations).

This will come back to haunt Labour.

Unexpected news:

Scotland on a knife-edge

“SUPPORT FOR independence has hardened in the face of the global recession, despite Labour predictions that the crisis would see more Scots turning to the Union for protection.

The latest TNS System Three survey for the Sunday Herald found support for leaving the union rose three points during the last quarter, while opposition to a separate Scottish state fell to its lowest level since the poll began 18 months ago.

The findings suggest the public has ignored Labour warnings that a breakaway Scotland would be doomed to join Iceland in the “arc of insolvency”.

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The poll was taken after opposition parties initially voted down the SNP government’s budget on February 28. Voters were reportedly unimpressed that MSPs could not agree a budget despite the country suffering the worst recession in decades.

The poll asked 971 adults how they would vote in a referendum on whether the Scottish government should open negotiations with Westminster on independence.

Support for commencing talks on separation was 38%, compared to 35% in October, while opposition was 40%, compared to 43%.”

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What say you, learned readers?

Clyde Arc (Glasgow) at night. Photo by kevinmcc on Flickr.

A rare example of journalism from the Scotsman, in the form of a feature on devolution, independence, the credit crunch and Scotland’s future. The author gauges the feelings of people living and working around the Skye Bridge, Forth Rail Bridge, Clyde Arc and Stirling Bridge. A reasonable national barometer, I suppose.

I’ve been to Estonia. I was married in Malta when Scotland played there. That’s my aim for Scotland – to win the World Cup.”

So which does she think will happen first – Scottish independence or football glory? “Independence,” she laughs. “Definitely.”

Full article

Significant changes are underway in British politics, and Scotland has a crucial role.

Or perhaps it’s more accurate to say that Scottish politics is changing, and that it is having important implications for the assumptions that UK politics is based on.

The incumbent UK Prime Minister is Scottish and in a spot of bother* over the 10p rate of income tax, a poor showing in the local elections and a general impression of being out of touch (and other trivial matters**). As a traditionally strong source of support for the Labour party, the current troubles of the Scottish Labour Party are causing severe worries for the UK party.

In the past few weeks, the issue of a referendum on Scottish independence has come to the fore oncemore. The Scottish National Party, the largest party in the Scottish Parliament at Holyrood and a minority administration, is committed to introducing a referendum in 2010. The Scottish Labour leader Wendy Alexander attempted to outmanoeuvre the SNP by declaring support for an immediate referendum (her mind, it is said, was changed during an interview on a BBC show). The threat was empty: Scottish Parliament legislative rules prevent private members’ Bills being introduced if the government of the day is planning to legislate on the same issue, so the SNP referendum bill would take trumps. Alexander’s move spectacularly backfired, leaving UK PM Gordon Brown having misled the UK Parliament about her views and the two sections of the party dramatically out of step, with the UK party opposed and the Scottish party committed.

And Alex Salmond (SNP First Minister of Scotland) looking even more smug than usual.

What can we say for sure? There will be a referendum on independence in 2010, after Salmond’s National Conversation finishes up. It is unimaginable that Labour could go back on that now. But the devil will be in the detail – wording matters greatly to the result, as does the selection of options present.

And the result? Anyone’s guess. Polls show anywhere between 25% and 75% support, depending on the questions asked. But an option is likely to be included offering greater powers for Holyrood – an option which would have overwhelming support. The presence of a Tory government in the UK Parliament might be enough to tip the scales toward independence.

Gerry Hassan from Demos provides an excellent summary of the issues leading up to the events of the past two weeks:

 

Gerry Hassan on The Unravelling of Labour Britain   (via Scottish Futures)

The advent of devolution created two different political systems in Scotland: the Scottish Parliament and Westminster. In the later Labour dominance still continues – the only part of Scotland still elected now by First Past The Post and the only part where Labour have a majority of the seats on their customary minority of the vote.

The Scottish Parliament is elected by a broadly proportionally system which means that all political parties are parliamentary minorities. From the first elections in 1999 which Labour finished as the leading party, the SNP established themselves as the clear challengers and opposition to Labour.

Thus, from the onset of the Parliament the dynamics of the two institutions and the parties within them have beat to a different pulse. The party sits in Holyrood in a Parliament where its main opponents sit to the left of them and unashamedly stress their Scottish credentials. At Westminster Labour have most often had to worry about losing votes and winning them from the right and a party emphasising its British qualities. Scottish Labour and British Labour have also had very different internal cultures and external strategies.

 Scottish Labour has had to emphasise its ‘bridge building’ qualities – stressing its Scottish qualities at Holyrood and its British at Westminster. It has had to do this with nuance and a deft touch: while being Scottish at Holyrood also emphasising the merits of the British union and at Westminster using its British agenda to sometimes stress the need for greater sensitivity to Scottish concerns. Pre-devolution the Scottish party under such titans as Thomas Johnston and Willie Ross managed this ‘bridge building’ strategy with great aplomb; it is the dynamics of the Scottish Parliament and devolution which have created the circumstances which have made this more difficult.

* Diplomatic license utilised

** And again